Bias shift to Neutral from Neutral / Bullish

WTI Crude Oil Futures (May)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 69.11 up +0.83 [+1.22%]

WTI Crude Oil rallied yesterday after the Trump administration signaled a softer tone on tariffs. The Administration stated that some countries may get breaks on the April 2nd tariff rollout, a departure from the previously staunch tone the group has held.

The quote drove a sharp risk on move in markets. Equities and bond yields moved sharply higher alongside a stronger dollar.

The announcement of a “secondary tariff” on any country that buys oil from Venezuela also helped accelerate crude oil’s move higher for the day.

Today, futures are higher by +0.40 [+0.58%] to 69.51

The macro environment is trading risk on with a bid under equities and a weaker dollar this morning. Yields are higher but coming off their overnight highs.

The threat of secondary tariffs and a potentially less harsh trade environment continue to drive futures higher. China purchases 40% of Venezuela’s oil exports, and the secondary tariffs may force those buyers back into the open market.

Technical Analysis:

We’ve shifted our bias back to Neutral. After catching the meat of this move back up to the 70.00 mark, we feel this is a decent zone to take profits and wait until more clear-cut risk/reward scenarios develop. Price may run back towards 71.00, but the risk/reward weighed against probabilities favor profit taking in this zone (in our opinion).

Price settled above our key three-star resistance level of 69.09*** and has made another move higher today. Technicals favor a run back at the 69.89-70.13*** level, at which point de-risking is advised.

For intraday trading, our pivot and balance point is set at…

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