Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures drifted 1 to 2 cents lower today. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 636,290 MT of corn shipments on the week ending 10/22. That was down from 911,648 MT last week but up 63% from the same week last year. Mexico was the top destination with 34%, and China was also shipped 131,651 MT of corn. Accumulated corn exports were 239.88 mbu, which is 82 million ahead of last year’s pace. This afternoon, USDA showed the week’s corn harvest progressed 12% to 72% complete. That was in line with estimates, and remains 16 percentage points ahead of the average pace. Milo progress advanced 11% to 74% harvested as of 10/25. SAFRAS and Mercado noted that first crop corn in Brazil was 53% planted as of 10/23. That compares to the 62.5% average. Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said 2.8 million HA of corn was harvested through 10/22, which is about 52% complete.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.17 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.18 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $4.19 1/4, down 2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $4.19 1/4, down 1 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

The afternoon rally in the soy complex brough the front month bean contracts back to positive territory, closing as much as 4 cents higher. After UNCH for May, soybeans closed 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents lower in the deferreds. Soymeal futures bounced back from midday losses and ended the Monday session $2.10 to $3.50/ton higher. Soybean oil stayed 19 to 35 points higher at the closing bell. USDA announced a private export sale for 120,700 MT of beans to unknown destinations this morning under the daily system. USDA also announced a large export sale for 135,000 MT of soymeal to the Philippines. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 2.66 MMT of soybean shipments on the week ending 10/22. That was up 15% wk/wk, and 69% above the same week last year. Of the week’s exports, 2.021 MMT went to China. Accumulated bean shipments are still on record pace with 526.856 mbu shipped through 10/22. After the close, NASS showed bean harvest progressed 8% on the week to 83% complete. The trade was expecting upper 80’s to 90% completion. The 5-yr average is 73%.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.87 3/4, up 4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.83 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.69, up 1 1/2 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.61 1/2, unch,

Dec 20 Soybean Meal closed at $389.60, up $3.20

Dec 20 Soybean Oil closed at $34.46, up $0.35

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

With increased rain and snow in the central US, the domestic wheat futures closed with double digit losses. KC HRW pulled back the most on Monday, dropping 2.63% to 3.12%. CBT futures were down 1.45% to 2.02% on the day. MPLS HRS futures ended the session 1.22% to 2.16% lower. Winter wheat planting was 85% complete as of 10/25 according to NASS’s Crop Progress report. That is up 5% from the average pace. SD planting was reported as complete, and KS had just 8% remaining. NASS says 62% of the crop was emerged, which is 2% ahead of average. KS emergence was reported at 70%. Initial winter wheat condition ratings were reported at 41% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 322. USDA said 363,806 MT of wheat was exported on the week ending 10/22. That was up from 241k MT LW but down 179k MT from the same week LY. The top destination for the week’s wheat shipments was Japan, with 105,399 MT. Accumulated wheat exports are running 4% ahead of 19/20’s pace with 11.043 MMT shipped so far. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their production estimate for Argentine wheat by 700k MT to 16.8 million.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.20, down 12 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.52, down 17 3/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.65, down 12 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Following midday losses, live cattle futures recovered to close the session mixed. October fats closed at $103.97 on the board. There were 1,764 contracts still open as of Friday. October contracts expire at the end of the week. Feeders ended the first trade day of the week with $0.92 to $1.22 gains. October feeders closed at $133.70 on the board with 1,379 contracts open as of Friday. They expire on Thursday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index dropped another $0.31 to $133.70 on 10/23. Monday cash trading was quiet save for very limited WCB deals at $103. The bulk sales last week were near $104 for the North and $106 in the South. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the PM report, and widened the Chc/Sel spread to $19.34. USDA reported Choice boxes at $207.83 cwt. and Select boxes at $188.49. That was a 34 cent bump and $2.91 drop respectively. USDA estimates the start to this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 118,000 head for Monday.

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $103.400, down $0.175,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $106.400, down $0.225,

Apr 21 Cattle closed at $109.500, up $0.225,

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.575, up $0.925

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $126.775, up $1.225

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $126.450, up $0.925

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog trading erased midday losses and futures ended the session with 27 to 72 cent gains. The Fresh Bacon Index was $7.95 higher for the week, to $222.45. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/22 was $78.54, 6 cents weaker. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $62.30, up a sharp $3.59. The National Pork Carcass Cutout value $1.39 lower in USDA’s PM update, at $91.86. Bellies fell by $13.17, and offset gains for the majority of the other primal cuts. USDA’s Estimate for Monday’s FI hog slaughter is 492,000 head. That is 1k above the same week last year and up from 477 last Monday.

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $67.750, up $0.725,

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $67.650, up $0.725

Apr 21 Hogs closed at $70.075, up $0.350

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month cotton futures were 62 to 85 points higher. Last week, The Seam reported 18,923 bales sold for a wtd av price of 66.24 cents/lb. USDA’s Spot Cotton Quotations report showed 2,871 bales were sold at an average gross price of 67 cents/lb. As of 10/25 5% of cotton crops remain with unopened bolls, compared to 7% remaining LW and 8% average. Harvesting continues at average pace; an additional 8% of the crop was picked on the week bringing harvest to 42% complete. NASS ratings on the remaining crop resulted in a 311 on the Brugler500 index. The Cotlook A index was 90 points better on 10/23 at 77.75 cents/lb. The AWP for the week is 55.71 cents/lb.

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 72.11, up 82 points,

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 72.72, up 85 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 73.22, up 77 points

Jul 21 Cotton closed at 73.58, up 72 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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